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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Manchester City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fulham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Fulham 0-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.14 xG and Manchester City 1.41 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against Manchester City attack 0.89 / defence 0.80, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 30% | Draw 26% | Manchester City 43%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 61%, Manchester City 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Manchester City's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Manchester City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights