Fulham 2-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Liverpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Liverpool make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fulham have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fulham haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Liverpool (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Liverpool haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Liverpool's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Liverpool are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 50% versus Liverpool 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 53% | Liverpool 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.07 xG and Liverpool 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Liverpool attack 1.152 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.357. Data: 0 Fulham games / 38 Liverpool games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fulham 22% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 54%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Liverpool 1.85. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 50% | Liverpool 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 22% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Fulham 1.07 / Liverpool 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Liverpool attack 1.152 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Liverpool xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Liverpool kick off?
Fulham vs Liverpool kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Liverpool?
Fulham 2 - 2 Liverpool.
Where is Fulham vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Liverpool part of?
Fulham vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 22% chance of winning, Liverpool a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fulham and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Liverpool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Liverpool in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Fulham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fulham's attack rating (0.85) and Liverpool's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.15x) against Fulham's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
22%
4.48
23%
4.26
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.87
1.80
Liverpool xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
4%
27.00
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fulham and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Fulham and 1.80 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 22W 8D 8L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. Fulham haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Liverpool's form line: 28W 8D 2L from 38 games, 2.42 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. Liverpool haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fulham have posted 2.05 PPG from 19 outings (12W 3D 4L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 13W 4D 2L from 19 away games — 2.26 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.47 scored and 0.68 conceded. Fulham's scoring rate against Liverpool's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Liverpool in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Pre-Season
Liverpool
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 22W 8D 8L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 28W 8D 2L in their last 38 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.05 PPG; Liverpool away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Fulham or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Liverpool in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fulham
3
Draws
4
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Liverpool?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Liverpool have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Liverpool 2-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 53%, Liverpool 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Fulham and 68% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Liverpool in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fulham's recent matches and 47% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Fulham's matches and 68% of Liverpool's.
Fulham and Liverpool share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham and Liverpool finished level at 2-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.07 xG and Liverpool 1.80 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Liverpool attack 1.15 / defence 0.84, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 22% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 54%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 53%, Liverpool 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Liverpool's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.