Everton 0-1 Chelsea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chelsea at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Chelsea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton and Chelsea meet at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Everton's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Goodison Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chelsea's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chelsea haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Chelsea away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Everton, 0 for Chelsea and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Chelsea — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 53% versus Chelsea 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 55% | Chelsea 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.20 xG and Chelsea 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.980 / defence 0.977 | Chelsea attack 1.199 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.282. Chelsea's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Everton games / 38 Chelsea games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Everton 30% | Draw 26% | Chelsea 44%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Chelsea 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chelsea at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chelsea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Everton 30% | Chelsea 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Chelsea | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 30% | Draw 26% | Chelsea 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Everton 1.20 / Chelsea 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.980 / def 0.977 | Chelsea attack 1.199 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Chelsea xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Chelsea kick off?
Everton vs Chelsea kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton 0 - 1 Chelsea.
Where is Everton vs Chelsea being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Chelsea part of?
Everton vs Chelsea is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Chelsea?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 30% chance of winning, Chelsea a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Everton and Chelsea will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Chelsea?
Record (2 meetings): Everton 1W | Draws 1 | Chelsea 0W.
What form are Everton and Chelsea in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.98x the league average against Chelsea's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chelsea's attack (1.20x) against Everton's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
30%
3.33
26%
3.87
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Everton xG
Total xG
2.70
1.50
Chelsea xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Chelsea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Everton and Chelsea expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Everton and 1.50 for Chelsea, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Chelsea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton's recent record stands at 11W 6D 21L from 38 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. Everton haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 6L across 38 games — 1.95 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. Chelsea haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chelsea by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton have managed 9W 2D 8L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chelsea's away record stands at 12W 4D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chelsea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Chelsea are on 2.00 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Chelsea in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Pre-Season
Chelsea
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Chelsea in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 11W 6D 21L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while Chelsea have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Chelsea away?
Chelsea's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.53 PPG; Chelsea away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Everton or Chelsea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Chelsea in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chelsea won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chelsea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton
3
Draws
4
Chelsea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Chelsea?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Chelsea have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Chelsea last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Everton 3-0 Chelsea.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Chelsea?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 47%, Chelsea 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton) and 53% (Chelsea).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Chelsea in 53%; Everton have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Chelsea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Chelsea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Everton's recent matches and 37% of Chelsea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Chelsea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton's recent games and 53% of Chelsea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Chelsea edge out Everton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chelsea beat Everton 0-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.20 xG and Chelsea 1.50 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Chelsea attack 1.20 / defence 0.79, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 30% | Draw 26% | Chelsea 44%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 55%, Chelsea 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chelsea's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.