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Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Leeds 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Leeds 1-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.01 xG and Leeds 0.95 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Leeds landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Leeds attack 0.74 / defence 1.47, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 62% | Draw 21% | Leeds 17%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 54%, Leeds 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Leeds's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Fulham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights