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Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Fulham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Fulham 1-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.12 xG and Everton 1.08 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against Everton attack 0.84 / defence 0.66, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 33% | Draw 36% | Everton 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Everton 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Everton's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.42 PPG, Everton 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights