Fulham 1-2 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Fulham take on Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Fulham welcome Everton to Craven Cottage in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fulham have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fulham's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fulham at 1.70 PPG versus Everton's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Fulham, 2 for Everton and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Fulham 0–2 Everton — a Everton win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Everton trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 68% versus Everton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 56% | Everton 34%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fulham surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Everton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Everton surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Fulham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.12 xG and Everton 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.140 / defence 1.027 | Everton attack 0.842 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.252. Everton bring a tight defence (rating 0.655, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Fulham's projected output down. Data: built from Fulham's last 62 games and Everton's last 62.
Result probabilities: Fulham 33% | Draw 36% | Everton 31%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 3.03 | Draw 2.79 | Everton 3.21. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 60% (last 10 home games) | Everton 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 33% | Draw 36% | Everton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Fulham 1.12 / Everton 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.140 / def 1.027 | Everton attack 0.842 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Everton xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Everton FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Everton kick off?
Fulham vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Everton?
Fulham 1 - 2 Everton.
Where is Fulham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Everton part of?
Fulham vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 33% chance of winning, Everton a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fulham and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Fulham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.14x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 62 games and Everton's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
36%
2.79
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.20
1.08
Everton xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Fulham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Fulham and 1.08 for Everton, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 25W 13D 24L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 20W 22D 20L from 62 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.42 PPG, Everton on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 31 home games (14W 7D 10L).
On the road, Everton have gone 11W 9D 11L from their last 31 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.10 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Everton
Blended
Fulham (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Fulham vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Everton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 25W 13D 24L in their last 62 games (1.42 PPG), while Everton have gone 20W 22D 20L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Everton away?
Fulham's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.58 PPG; Everton away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Fulham or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Everton in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Everton have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Fulham's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
3
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Everton?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 2, Everton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Everton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 68%, Everton 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Fulham) and 23% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 36%; Everton in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Everton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Fulham's recent matches and 36% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fulham and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Fulham's recent games and 23% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Fulham's recent matches and 58% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Fulham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Fulham 1-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.12 xG and Everton 1.08 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against Everton attack 0.84 / defence 0.66, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 33% | Draw 36% | Everton 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Everton 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.42 PPG, Everton 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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