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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fulham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Fulham 1-3 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.06 xG and Everton 1.00 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Everton outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Everton attack 0.70 / defence 0.73, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 36% | Draw 31% | Everton 33%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Everton 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Everton's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.34 PPG, Everton 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights