🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Fulham at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Everton encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 36 as Fulham welcome Everton to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Everton's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fulham at 1.20 PPG versus Everton's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fulham have won 2, Everton 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Fulham trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Everton trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 59% versus Everton 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Everton 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.06 xG and Everton 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.975 / defence 1.019 | Everton attack 0.702 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.395. Everton's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Fulham games / 73 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fulham 36% | Draw 31% | Everton 33%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Everton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 60% | Everton 40%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights