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Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fulham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Fulham 0-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 0.96 xG and Crystal Palace 1.50 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Crystal Palace attack 0.99 / defence 0.68, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 24% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 49%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.37 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights