Fulham 1-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crystal Palace make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Crystal Palace have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 54% versus Crystal Palace 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 65% | Crystal Palace 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.65 xG and Crystal Palace 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.980 / defence 0.846 | Crystal Palace attack 0.736 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.524. Data: 72 Fulham games / 72 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 53% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 21%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Crystal Palace 4.76. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 40% | Crystal Palace 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 53% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Fulham 1.65 / Crystal Palace 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.980 / def 0.846 | Crystal Palace attack 0.736 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.524 • Poisson stance: Fulham (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Crystal Palace xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Fulham 1 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Fulham vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Crystal Palace part of?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 53% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fulham and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
Record (3 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 2 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Crystal Palace's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.74x) against Fulham's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.89
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.60
0.95
Crystal Palace xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
4%
24.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fulham and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fulham and 0.95 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham's recent record stands at 27W 13D 32L from 72 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 21W 21D 30L across 72 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Fulham against 1.17 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 17W 6D 13L from 36 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 8W 10D 18L across 36 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.17 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Crystal Palace
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 27W 13D 32L in their last 72 games (1.31 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 21W 21D 30L in their last 72 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Crystal Palace away?
Fulham's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.58 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
4
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 53%, Crystal Palace 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Fulham) and 42% (Crystal Palace). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games; Crystal Palace in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fulham's recent matches and 50% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fulham's matches and 42% of Crystal Palace's.
Fulham and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham and Crystal Palace finished level at 1-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.65 xG and Crystal Palace 0.95 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Crystal Palace attack 0.74 / defence 0.95, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 53% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 21%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 65%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.31 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.