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Fulham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Burnley 3-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.01 xG and Burnley 1.05 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 0.82 / defence 1.38, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 58% | Draw 24% | Burnley 18%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 57%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Burnley's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.40 PPG, Burnley 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights