Fulham 2-1 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Fulham welcome Brentford to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Monday 4 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Brentford have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brentford's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fulham 1.50 PPG, Brentford 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fulham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Brentford in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fulham, 2 for Brentford and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Brentford trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 53% and Brentford 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Brentford 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.69 xG and Brentford 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.965 / defence 1.085 | Brentford attack 0.904 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.364. Data: 47 Fulham games / 47 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 26% | Brentford 30%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Brentford 3.33. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Brentford 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Monday 4 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 26% | Brentford 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Fulham 1.69 / Brentford 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.965 / def 1.085 | Brentford attack 0.904 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Fulham (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Brentford xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Brentford kick off?
Fulham vs Brentford kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 4 November 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Brentford?
Fulham 2 - 1 Brentford.
Where is Fulham vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Brentford part of?
Fulham vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 45% chance of winning, Brentford a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fulham and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brentford?
Record (4 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 1 | Brentford 2W.
What form are Fulham and Brentford in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Brentford (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Fulham vs Brentford?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (0.96) and Brentford's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.88
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.02
1.34
Brentford xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
5%
18.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fulham and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Fulham and 1.34 for Brentford, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 16W 11D 20L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brentford's form line: 14W 10D 23L from 47 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.26 PPG, Brentford on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (11W 3D 9L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 5W 2D 16L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.57 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford in 70%.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Brentford in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while Brentford have gone 14W 10D 23L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Brentford away?
Fulham's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.57 PPG; Brentford away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Brentford won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fulham
2
Draws
2
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brentford?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 4, Brentford have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Brentford 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Brentford?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 48%, Brentford 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fulham and 65% for Brentford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 30% of games; Brentford in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Fulham's recent matches and 61% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fulham's matches and 65% of Brentford's.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Brentford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Brentford 2-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.69 xG and Brentford 1.34 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Brentford attack 0.90 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 45% | Draw 26% | Brentford 30%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Brentford 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Brentford's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.26 PPG, Brentford 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.