Ipswich 1-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Ipswich welcome Leicester to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Portman Road this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Leicester — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ipswich 0.70 PPG, Leicester 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ipswich, 0 for Leicester and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Leicester in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ipswich 62% and Leicester 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 58% | Leicester 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.52 xG and Leicester 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.700 / defence 1.177 | Leicester attack 1.111 / defence 1.417. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.425. Ipswich's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Leicester bring a strong defensive rating of 1.417 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Ipswich games / 9 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 31% | Draw 24% | Leicester 45%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Leicester 2.22. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ipswich 50% | Leicester 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 31% | Draw 24% | Leicester 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Ipswich 1.52 / Leicester 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.700 / def 1.177 | Leicester attack 1.111 / def 1.417 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Leicester (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Leicester xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Leicester kick off?
Ipswich vs Leicester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Leicester?
Ipswich 1 - 1 Leicester.
Where is Ipswich vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Leicester part of?
Ipswich vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 31% chance of winning, Leicester a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ipswich and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Leicester?
Record (2 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 2 | Leicester 0W.
What form are Ipswich and Leicester in?
Ipswich (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Leicester (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Ipswich vs Leicester?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Leicester's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
31%
3.23
24%
4.17
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.39
1.86
Leicester xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
16%
6.45
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
5%
20.85
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.86 for Leicester, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ipswich come into this having played 55 games, going 28W 16D 11L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.93 PPG from 55 outings (33W 7D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.82 PPG, Leicester on 1.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ipswich's home form reads 16W 8D 3L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 1.81 points per game from 27 outings (15W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.85 scored and 1.05 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Leicester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Leicester in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 28W 16D 11L in their last 55 games (1.82 PPG), while Leicester have gone 33W 7D 15L in their last 55 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Leicester away?
Ipswich's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.07 PPG; Leicester away: 1.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ipswich and Leicester runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich's record when hosting Leicester specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ipswich
4
Draws
2
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Leicester?
From 6 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 0, Leicester have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Ipswich 1-1 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Leicester?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ipswich at 70%, Leicester at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ipswich and 63% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Ipswich's games and 63% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ipswich's matches and 63% of Leicester's.
Do Ipswich and Leicester tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Leicester in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich and Leicester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Portman Road, Regular Season - 10, as Ipswich and Leicester drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.52 xG and Leicester 1.86 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Leicester landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.70 / defence 1.18 against Leicester attack 1.11 / defence 1.42, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 31% | Draw 24% | Leicester 45%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 58%, Leicester 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Leicester's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.82 PPG, Leicester 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.