Fulham vs Aston Villa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Aston Villa in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Aston Villa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aston Villa away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fulham, 1.50 for Aston Villa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, Aston Villa have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Fulham's 2, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Aston Villa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 53% versus Aston Villa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 47% | Aston Villa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.31 xG and Aston Villa 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.973 / defence 1.116 | Aston Villa attack 0.980 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.170. Data: 47 Fulham games / 47 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 38% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 36%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Aston Villa 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 50% | Aston Villa 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 38% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Fulham 1.31 / Aston Villa 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.973 / def 1.116 | Aston Villa attack 0.980 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Fulham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Aston Villa xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Aston Villa kick off?
Fulham vs Aston Villa is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Craven Cottage.
Where is Fulham vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Aston Villa part of?
Fulham vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 38% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fulham and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Record (9 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 1 | Aston Villa 6W.
What form are Fulham and Aston Villa in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Aston Villa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.97x the league average against Aston Villa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.98x) against Fulham's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.79
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.59
1.28
Aston Villa xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fulham and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Fulham and 1.28 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 17W 10D 20L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa's form line: 22W 11D 14L from 47 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Fulham against 1.64 for Aston Villa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 9W 7D 7L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.40 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 22W 11D 14L in their last 47 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Aston Villa away?
Fulham's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.70 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 3-0 on 20 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Fulham
1
Draws
6
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Aston Villa?
From 9 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Aston Villa have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 56%, Aston Villa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fulham) and 48% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Aston Villa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Aston Villa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fulham's games and 56% of Aston Villa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Fulham's recent games and 48% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Aston Villa tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Aston Villa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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