Fulham vs Arsenal – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fulham and Arsenal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham and Arsenal finished level at 1-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.33 xG and Arsenal 1.94 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Arsenal landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Arsenal attack 1.18 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 25% | Draw 24% | Arsenal 51%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Arsenal 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Arsenal's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights