Fulham vs Arsenal – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fulham's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (1.18x) against Fulham's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
25%
3.96
24%
4.15
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.28
1.94
Arsenal xG
3.96
25%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
14%
6.99
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
4%
27.69
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Fulham and 1.94 for Arsenal, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.