Everton 1-1 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Everton welcome West Ham to Hill Dickinson Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 September 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. West Ham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, West Ham have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Everton carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Everton, 4 for West Ham and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
West Ham in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 42% versus West Ham 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 37% | West Ham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.33 xG and West Ham 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.934 / defence 0.762 | West Ham attack 1.081 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.219. Everton's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Everton games / 43 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 44% | Draw 28% | West Ham 28%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | West Ham 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
West Ham lead the H2H ledger, but Everton carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton 50% | West Ham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 44% | Draw 28% | West Ham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Everton 1.33 / West Ham 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.934 / def 0.762 | West Ham attack 1.081 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Everton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.00
West Ham xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs West Ham kick off?
Everton vs West Ham kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 29 September 2025 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs West Ham?
Everton 1 - 1 West Ham.
Where is Everton vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs West Ham part of?
Everton vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 44% chance of winning, West Ham a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Everton and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and West Ham?
Record (8 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 2 | West Ham 4W.
What form are Everton and West Ham in?
Everton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. West Ham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.93) and West Ham's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.53
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Everton xG
Total xG
2.33
1.00
West Ham xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Everton and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Everton and 1.00 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 16D 14L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.07 PPG from 43 outings (12W 10D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for West Ham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.28 PPG, West Ham on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 6W 10D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.19 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
West Ham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and West Ham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 13W 16D 14L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while West Ham have gone 12W 10D 21L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or West Ham away?
Everton's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.33 PPG; West Ham away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Everton or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, West Ham in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
3
Draws
5
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, West Ham have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when West Ham 2-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
West Ham tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 43%, West Ham 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Everton) and 48% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Everton's recent matches and 57% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Everton's recent games and 48% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and West Ham tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, West Ham in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton and West Ham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Everton and West Ham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.33 xG and West Ham 1.00 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.93 / defence 0.76 against West Ham attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 44% | Draw 28% | West Ham 28%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 37%, West Ham 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
West Ham's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.28 PPG, West Ham 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.