Everton vs Tottenham Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Everton at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours Tottenham — this Everton vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hill Dickinson Stadium plays host to Everton versus Tottenham in Premier League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Everton's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Everton's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tottenham have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Tottenham have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Everton, 1.20 for Tottenham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Tottenham, who have 6 wins from 10 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 10 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2026, ended Everton 0–0 Tottenham — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Tottenham have won 6 of 10 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Tottenham — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 48% versus Tottenham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Tottenham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.09 xG and Tottenham 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.968 / defence 1.048 | Tottenham attack 0.820 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.164. Tottenham bring a tight defence (rating 0.768, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Everton's projected output down. Data: built from Everton's last 48 games and Tottenham's last 48.
Result probabilities: Everton 37% | Draw 30% | Tottenham 33%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.67 | Draw 3.34 | Tottenham 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 10 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 50% (last 10 home games) | Tottenham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 37% | Draw 30% | Tottenham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Everton 1.09 / Tottenham 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.968 / def 1.048 | Tottenham attack 0.820 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Everton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Tottenham xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton vs Tottenham FAQs
What time does Everton vs Tottenham kick off?
Everton vs Tottenham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Where is Everton vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Tottenham part of?
Everton vs Tottenham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 37% chance of winning, Tottenham a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Everton and Tottenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Everton vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.97x the league average against Tottenham's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tottenham's attack (0.82x) against Everton's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Everton's last 48 games and Tottenham's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.34
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Everton xG
Total xG
2.09
1.00
Tottenham xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton vs Tottenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Everton and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Everton and 1.00 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton's recent record stands at 17W 14D 17L from 48 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 21L across 48 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Everton against 1.10 for Tottenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton have managed 9W 6D 9L from their last 24 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 8W 7D 9L across their last 24 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.21 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
Everton (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Everton vs Tottenham Form FAQs
What form are Everton and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Tottenham away?
Everton's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.38 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Everton or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Tottenham in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Everton and Tottenham, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tottenham won Tottenham 5-0 Everton on 7 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Tottenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
3
Draws
6
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton vs Tottenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Tottenham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton have won 1, Tottenham have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Tottenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Tottenham 0-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 50%, Tottenham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Everton) and 54% (Tottenham).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Tottenham in 33%; Tottenham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton vs Tottenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton and Tottenham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton's recent matches and 46% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Everton and Tottenham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Everton's recent games and 54% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Tottenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Everton's recent matches and 62% of Tottenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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