Crystal Palace vs Everton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crystal Palace host Everton at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Crystal Palace have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crystal Palace at 0.80 PPG versus Everton's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Everton, who boast 7 victories compared to 0 for Crystal Palace.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with Everton winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Everton have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Everton in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 53% versus Everton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 58% | Everton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.50 xG and Everton 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 1.074 / defence 1.237 | Everton attack 0.942 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.269. Data: 45 Crystal Palace games / 45 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 38% | Draw 25% | Everton 37%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Everton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 70% | Everton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 38% | Draw 25% | Everton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Crystal Palace 1.50 / Everton 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 1.074 / def 1.237 | Everton attack 0.942 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Everton xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Everton kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Everton is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Selhurst Park.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Everton part of?
Crystal Palace vs Everton is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 38% chance of winning, Everton a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Crystal Palace and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Record (10 meetings): Crystal Palace 0W | Draws 3 | Everton 7W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (1.07) and Everton's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
38%
2.64
25%
3.97
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.98
1.48
Everton xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.48 for Everton, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 13D 19L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Everton's form line: 15W 14D 16L from 45 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.16 PPG, Everton on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (5W 9D 8L).
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 8D 7L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Everton have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Everton away?
Everton's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.09 PPG; Everton away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Everton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crystal Palace and Everton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
7
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 0, Everton have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Everton see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 59%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crystal Palace) and 36% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 32% of games; Everton in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 50% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 36% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crystal Palace and Everton tend to score early?
Crystal Palace have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Everton in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.