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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Everton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham beat Everton 0-3 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.24 xG and Tottenham 1.22 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Everton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Tottenham outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Tottenham attack 1.25 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 37% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 36%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Tottenham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 37%, Tottenham 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Tottenham's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.28 PPG, Tottenham 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights