🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Everton at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Hill Dickinson Stadium plays host to Everton versus Tottenham in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 26 October 2025 at 16:30 UTC.

Current Form

Everton's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Everton's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Hill Dickinson Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Tottenham have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, Tottenham have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Everton, 1.40 for Tottenham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Tottenham hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 3–2 with Everton winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Tottenham have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Everton — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Tottenham — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus Tottenham 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 37% | Tottenham 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.24 xG and Tottenham 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.966 / defence 0.807 | Tottenham attack 1.254 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.201. Tottenham have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Everton games / 46 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton 37% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 36%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Tottenham 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton 60% | Tottenham 50%.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights