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Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Everton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Everton 1-3 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.71 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against Sunderland attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 48% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 25%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 40%, Sunderland 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Sunderland's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.31 PPG, Sunderland 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights