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Poisson model rates Everton at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Everton host Sunderland at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Everton — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Premier League games this season, Sunderland have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Sunderland have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 1.20 PPG versus Sunderland's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Everton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sunderland in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Everton have won 0, Sunderland 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Everton in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Sunderland in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 46% versus Sunderland 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 40% | Sunderland 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.71 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.033 / defence 1.119 | Sunderland attack 0.872 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.225. Data: 74 Everton games / 36 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton 48% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 25%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Sunderland 4.00. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 60% | Sunderland 60% BTTS from recent games.

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