Everton 1-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Everton at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Everton face Sunderland.

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Match Analysis

Everton host Sunderland at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Everton — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Everton at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Sunderland have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Sunderland have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 1.20 PPG versus Sunderland's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Everton's games and 60% of Sunderland's (from Everton's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Everton, 0 for Sunderland and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2025, ended Everton 1–1 Sunderland — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Everton in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Sunderland in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 46% versus Sunderland 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 40% | Sunderland 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Everton surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Sunderland have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sunderland surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Everton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.71 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.033 / defence 1.119 | Sunderland attack 0.872 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.225. Data: built from Everton's last 74 games and Sunderland's last 36.

Result probabilities: Everton 48% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 25%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.08 | Draw 3.78 | Sunderland 3.93. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 60% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 60% (last 10 away games).

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