Everton vs Nottingham Forest – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Everton (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Everton face Nottingham Forest.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hill Dickinson Stadium plays host to Everton versus Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 27 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nottingham Forest's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Everton's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Nottingham Forest's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Everton are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Everton winning.
The historical record gives Everton a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 48% versus Nottingham Forest 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Nottingham Forest 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.59 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.969 / defence 1.042 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.002 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.144. Data: 48 Everton games / 48 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 47% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Nottingham Forest 3.45. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Nottingham Forest 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 47% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Everton 1.59 / Nottingham Forest 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.969 / def 1.042 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.002 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Everton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Nottingham Forest xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Everton vs Nottingham Forest is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Where is Everton vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Everton vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 47% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Everton and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
Record (8 meetings): Everton 5W | Draws 2 | Nottingham Forest 1W.
What form are Everton and Nottingham Forest in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.97x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (1.00x) against Everton's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
47%
2.15
25%
4.03
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Everton xG
Total xG
2.79
1.19
Nottingham Forest xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
6%
17.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Everton and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Everton and 1.19 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Everton have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 17W 14D 17L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 13W 14D 21L from 48 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Everton against 1.10 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 8W 5D 11L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Everton's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.38 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Everton or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Everton go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 3-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Everton
2
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 5, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Nottingham Forest 0-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 50%, Nottingham Forest 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Everton) and 62% (Nottingham Forest). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton's recent matches and 54% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Everton's matches and 62% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Everton and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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