🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Everton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nottingham Forest.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Nottingham Forest 3-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.17 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nottingham Forest landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.91 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 34% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 39%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 36%, Nottingham Forest 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.33 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights