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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Hill Dickinson Stadium plays host to Everton versus Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 6 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Everton have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Nottingham Forest's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nottingham Forest's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Everton 3W, Nottingham Forest 1W, 2D.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Everton — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 42% versus Nottingham Forest 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 36% | Nottingham Forest 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.17 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.875 / defence 1.093 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.911 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.290. Data: 52 Everton games / 52 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 39%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Nottingham Forest 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Nottingham Forest 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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