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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Everton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Everton 0-2 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.26 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.91 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Everton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.88 / defence 0.63 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 42% | Draw 34% | Nottingham Forest 24%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Nottingham Forest win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 42%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.18 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights