Everton 0-2 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goodison Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nottingham Forest's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Nottingham Forest arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Everton 2W, Nottingham Forest 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 38% versus Nottingham Forest 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Nottingham Forest 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.26 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.877 / defence 0.632 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.985 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.458. Everton's defence rating of 0.632 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Everton games / 56 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 42% | Draw 34% | Nottingham Forest 24%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Nottingham Forest 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Everton dominate the H2H record, yet Nottingham Forest are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nottingham Forest (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 30% | Nottingham Forest 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 42% | Draw 34% | Nottingham Forest 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Everton 1.26 / Nottingham Forest 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.877 / def 0.632 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.985 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Everton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Nottingham Forest xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Everton vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Everton 0 - 2 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Everton vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Everton vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 42% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Everton and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
Record (4 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 2 | Nottingham Forest 0W.
What form are Everton and Nottingham Forest in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.88x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.98x) against Everton's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.97
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Everton xG
Total xG
2.17
0.91
Nottingham Forest xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Everton and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Everton and 0.91 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Everton have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 16W 17D 22L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 19W 13D 23L from 55 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Everton against 1.27 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 9W 6D 12L from 27 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.31 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Everton have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Everton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.41 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Everton or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Everton go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 3-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Everton
2
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 5, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Nottingham Forest 0-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 33%, Nottingham Forest 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Everton) and 56% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 33% of games; Nottingham Forest in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Everton's recent matches and 56% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Everton's recent games and 56% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Everton 0-2 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.26 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.91 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Everton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.88 / defence 0.63 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 42% | Draw 34% | Nottingham Forest 24%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Nottingham Forest win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 42%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.18 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.