Everton 2-0 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Everton at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Everton face Nottingham Forest.

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Full Analysis

Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Nottingham Forest in Premier League (matchday 34). Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Everton have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Everton have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Everton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Nottingham Forest's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Nottingham Forest's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Everton edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Everton 1–0 Nottingham Forest — a Everton win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Everton — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus Nottingham Forest 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 44% | Nottingham Forest 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.51 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.769 / defence 0.886 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.811 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.534. Everton's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.51. Data: built from Everton's last 70 games and Nottingham Forest's last 71.

Result probabilities: Everton 46% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.18 | Draw 3.67 | Nottingham Forest 3.72. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and Nottingham Forest's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 50% (last 10 home games) | Nottingham Forest 80% (last 10 away games).

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