Everton 2-0 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Nottingham Forest's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nottingham Forest's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Everton 1W, Nottingham Forest 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus Nottingham Forest 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 44% | Nottingham Forest 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.51 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.769 / defence 0.886 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.811 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.534. Everton's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 Everton games / 71 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 46% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Nottingham Forest 3.70. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Nottingham Forest 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 46% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Everton 1.51 / Nottingham Forest 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.769 / def 0.886 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.811 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Everton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Nottingham Forest xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Everton vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Everton 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Everton vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Everton vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 46% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Everton and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
Record (3 meetings): Everton 1W | Draws 2 | Nottingham Forest 0W.
What form are Everton and Nottingham Forest in?
Everton (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.77x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.81x) against Everton's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 70/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.67
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Everton xG
Total xG
2.61
1.10
Nottingham Forest xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
6%
16.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Everton and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Everton and 1.10 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Everton have picked up 1.01 PPG on a 17W 20D 33L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 16W 20D 34L from 70 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.01 PPG for Everton against 0.97 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.09 PPG from 34 outings (10W 7D 17L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 3W 9D 22L from 34 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nottingham Forest's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.14 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 17W 20D 33L in their last 70 games (1.01 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 16W 20D 34L in their last 70 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Everton's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.09 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Everton go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 3-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Everton
2
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 5, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Nottingham Forest 0-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 41%, Nottingham Forest 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton) and 56% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 29% of games; Nottingham Forest in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Everton's recent matches and 53% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Everton's recent games and 56% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Everton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nottingham Forest.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.51 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.10 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nottingham Forest landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.77 / defence 0.89 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 46% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 27%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 44%, Nottingham Forest 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.01 PPG, Nottingham Forest 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.