Aston Villa 3-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aston Villa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aston Villa vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Aston Villa welcome Bournemouth to Villa Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aston Villa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Aston Villa at Villa Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Aston Villa) versus 1.50 (Bournemouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Aston Villa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bournemouth in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Aston Villa, 1 for Bournemouth and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Aston Villa in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aston Villa 59% versus Bournemouth 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aston Villa 59% | Bournemouth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 2.03 xG and Bournemouth 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 1.120 / defence 1.112 | Bournemouth attack 0.977 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.525. Data: 71 Aston Villa games / 70 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 46% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 31%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Bournemouth 3.23. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aston Villa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aston Villa 60% | Bournemouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 46% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Aston Villa 2.03 / Bournemouth 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 1.120 / def 1.112 | Bournemouth attack 0.977 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Bournemouth xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aston Villa vs Bournemouth kick off?
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Aston Villa 3 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Aston Villa vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Bournemouth part of?
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 46% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Aston Villa and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Aston Villa vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Bournemouth?
Record (3 meetings): Aston Villa 1W | Draws 1 | Bournemouth 1W.
What form are Aston Villa and Bournemouth in?
Aston Villa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aston Villa's attack rating (1.12) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Aston Villa's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
46%
2.16
22%
4.46
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
3.69
1.66
Bournemouth xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
4%
24.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.66 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Aston Villa have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 37W 13D 20L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 22W 15D 33L from 70 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Aston Villa are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bournemouth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Aston Villa have posted 2.06 PPG from 34 outings (22W 4D 8L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 10W 5D 19L from 34 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aston Villa are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.20 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aston Villa and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 37W 13D 20L in their last 70 games (1.77 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 22W 15D 33L in their last 70 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Bournemouth away?
Aston Villa's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 2.06 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aston Villa and Bournemouth runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2025, when Aston Villa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aston Villa's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Aston Villa
3
Draws
1
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Aston Villa have won 4, Bournemouth have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Bournemouth?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aston Villa 59%, Bournemouth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Aston Villa and 62% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bournemouth in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aston Villa play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 50% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aston Villa vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Aston Villa's matches and 62% of Bournemouth's.
Aston Villa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bournemouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Bournemouth 3-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 2.03 xG and Bournemouth 1.66 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Aston Villa beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against Bournemouth attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 46% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 31%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 59%, Bournemouth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.