Everton 0-1 Manchester United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Manchester United (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Everton face Manchester United.

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Analysis

Manchester United make the trip to Hill Dickinson Stadium to face Everton in Premier League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form

Everton (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Everton have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Manchester United have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Manchester United's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Manchester United are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Everton's last 10 home games and Manchester United's last 10 away games) — Everton have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Manchester United in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Manchester United have the stronger record — 5 wins to Everton's 2, with 1 draw.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2025, ended Everton 1–0 Manchester United — a Everton win.

Manchester United have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Data

Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Manchester United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus Manchester United 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 36% | Manchester United 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Everton surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Manchester United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Manchester United surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Everton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.38 xG and Manchester United 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.884 / defence 1.156 | Manchester United attack 1.209 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.287. Manchester United have an above-average attack rating of 1.209, which lifts their away xG to 1.80. Data: built from Everton's last 64 games and Manchester United's last 64.

Result probabilities: Everton 27% | Draw 28% | Manchester United 45%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.69 | Draw 3.58 | Manchester United 2.23. Manchester United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.80) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Manchester United are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Manchester United if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and Manchester United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 60% (last 10 home games) | Manchester United 100% (last 10 away games).

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