🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Manchester United edge out Everton 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United beat Everton 0-1 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.38 xG and Manchester United 1.80 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Manchester United attack 1.21 / defence 1.10, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 27% | Draw 28% | Manchester United 45%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 36%, Manchester United 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Manchester United's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.33 PPG, Manchester United 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Manchester United win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Manchester United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights