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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Liverpool defy the odds to beat Everton 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Everton 1-2 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.44 xG and Liverpool 1.22 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Liverpool attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 40% | Draw 30% | Liverpool 30%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Liverpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 37%, Liverpool 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Liverpool's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights