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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton and Liverpool share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton and Liverpool finished level at 2-2 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.13 xG and Liverpool 1.69 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.97 / defence 0.74 against Liverpool attack 1.47 / defence 0.78, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 24% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 49%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 41%, Liverpool 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Liverpool's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights