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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Liverpool (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Everton face Liverpool.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Everton welcome Liverpool to Goodison Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 February 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Everton's home record at Goodison Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goodison Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Liverpool — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Liverpool's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Everton's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Liverpool, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Everton.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Everton winning.

It is worth noting that Liverpool have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Everton in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Liverpool in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 36% versus Liverpool 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 41% | Liverpool 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.13 xG and Liverpool 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.969 / defence 0.740 | Liverpool attack 1.473 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.547. Liverpool's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Liverpool have an above-average attack strength of 1.473 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Everton's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Everton games / 61 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton 24% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 49%. Fair-value odds: Everton 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Liverpool 2.04. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Everton 30% | Liverpool 60%.

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