🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Everton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fulham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Fulham 2-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.56 xG and Fulham 1.08 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fulham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Fulham attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 48% | Draw 25% | Fulham 26%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 38%, Fulham 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Fulham's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.25 PPG, Fulham 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights