Everton 2-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Fulham travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Fulham — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Everton) versus 1.10 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Everton, 2 for Fulham and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus Fulham 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 38% | Fulham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.56 xG and Fulham 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.862 / defence 0.975 | Fulham attack 0.938 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.183. Fulham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Everton games / 48 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 48% | Draw 25% | Fulham 26%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Fulham 3.85. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Fulham 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 48% | Draw 25% | Fulham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Everton 1.56 / Fulham 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.862 / def 0.975 | Fulham attack 0.938 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Everton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Fulham xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Fulham kick off?
Everton vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Fulham?
Everton 2 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Everton vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Fulham part of?
Everton vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 48% chance of winning, Fulham a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Everton and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Fulham?
Record (6 meetings): Everton 1W | Draws 3 | Fulham 2W.
What form are Everton and Fulham in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.86) and Fulham's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
48%
2.06
25%
3.96
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Everton xG
Total xG
2.65
1.08
Fulham xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Everton and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Everton and 1.08 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 48 games, going 14W 18D 16L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.35 PPG from 48 outings (18W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.25 PPG, Fulham on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 7W 11D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.38 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 69%.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Fulham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 14W 18D 16L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Fulham have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Fulham away?
Everton's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.33 PPG; Fulham away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Everton's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Everton
3
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Fulham have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Fulham?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 46%, Fulham 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Everton) and 54% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Everton's games and 71% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Everton's recent games and 54% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Fulham tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fulham in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Fulham 2-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.56 xG and Fulham 1.08 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fulham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Fulham attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 48% | Draw 25% | Fulham 26%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 38%, Fulham 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.25 PPG, Fulham 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.