Everton 1-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fulham at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Everton face Fulham.

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Analysis & Preview

Fulham travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton in Premier League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Everton have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Everton at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Everton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Fulham — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Everton) versus 1.40 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Everton have won 0, Fulham 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Jan 2024, ended Everton 0–0 Fulham — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Everton in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Fulham in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 41% versus Fulham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 46% | Fulham 61%). Note also that Fulham surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Everton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.30 xG and Fulham 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.859 / defence 0.996 | Fulham attack 0.922 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.461. Data: built from Everton's last 46 games and Fulham's last 46.

Result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 29% | Fulham 36%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.90 | Draw 3.42 | Fulham 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Everton 30% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 60% (last 10 away games).

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