Ipswich 0-2 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Portman Road plays host to Ipswich versus Everton in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Ipswich (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ipswich have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Everton have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Everton have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Ipswich against 0.90 for Everton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ipswich have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Everton in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 64% versus Everton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 60% | Everton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.59 xG and Everton 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.835 / defence 1.144 | Everton attack 0.880 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.439. Everton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Ipswich games / 45 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 39% | Draw 29% | Everton 32%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Everton 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 60% | Everton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 39% | Draw 29% | Everton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Ipswich 1.59 / Everton 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.835 / def 1.144 | Everton attack 0.880 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Everton xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Everton kick off?
Ipswich vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Everton?
Ipswich 0 - 2 Everton.
Where is Ipswich vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Everton part of?
Ipswich vs Everton is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 39% chance of winning, Everton a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ipswich and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ipswich and Everton in?
Ipswich (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Ipswich vs Everton?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.88x) against Ipswich's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.48
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.04
1.45
Everton xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.45 for Everton, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ipswich come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 16D 8L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Ipswich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.18 PPG from 45 outings (14W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ipswich's home form reads 13W 8D 1L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ipswich are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.04 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Everton in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 21W 16D 8L in their last 45 games (1.76 PPG), while Everton have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Everton away?
Ipswich's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.14 PPG; Everton away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Everton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ipswich
1
Draws
1
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Everton?
From 2 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 0, Everton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Everton 2-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 73%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Ipswich) and 50% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Everton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Ipswich's games and 50% of Everton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Ipswich's matches and 50% of Everton's.
Everton cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ipswich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Ipswich 0-2 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.59 xG and Everton 1.45 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Everton attack 0.88 / defence 1.22, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 39% | Draw 29% | Everton 32%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 60%, Everton 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.