Everton 3-2 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Crystal Palace at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 19 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 1.40 PPG versus Crystal Palace's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Everton have won 0, Crystal Palace 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Crystal Palace winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Crystal Palace trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Crystal Palace 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 53% | Crystal Palace 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.07 xG and Crystal Palace 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.857 / defence 1.000 | Crystal Palace attack 0.782 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.333. Data: 36 Everton games / 36 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 30% | Crystal Palace 34%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Crystal Palace 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 30% | Crystal Palace 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 30% | Crystal Palace 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Everton 1.07 / Crystal Palace 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.857 / def 1.000 | Crystal Palace attack 0.782 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Everton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Crystal Palace xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Everton vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 19 May 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Everton 3 - 2 Crystal Palace.
Where is Everton vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Crystal Palace part of?
Everton vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 36% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Everton and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Crystal Palace?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 0 | Crystal Palace 1W.
What form are Everton and Crystal Palace in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.86x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.34
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Everton xG
Total xG
2.12
1.04
Crystal Palace xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Everton and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Everton and 1.04 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Everton have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 6D 20L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Crystal Palace's form line: 10W 15D 11L from 36 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.00 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (8W 2D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 4W 7D 7L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.31 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Crystal Palace
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 10W 6D 20L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 10W 15D 11L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Crystal Palace away?
Everton's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.44 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Everton or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Everton
3
Draws
1
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Crystal Palace?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 6, Crystal Palace have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Crystal Palace?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 44%, Crystal Palace 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton) and 50% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 28% of games; Crystal Palace in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Everton's recent matches and 50% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Everton's recent games and 50% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Crystal Palace 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Crystal Palace 3-2 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.07 xG and Crystal Palace 1.04 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crystal Palace outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Crystal Palace attack 0.78 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 36% | Draw 30% | Crystal Palace 34%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 53%, Crystal Palace 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.00 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.