Aston Villa 1-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aston Villa and Crystal Palace meet at Villa Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aston Villa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Aston Villa's home record at Villa Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Crystal Palace's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Crystal Palace's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Crystal Palace are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Aston Villa 1W, Crystal Palace 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Aston Villa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Aston Villa — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aston Villa 49% versus Crystal Palace 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aston Villa 60% | Crystal Palace 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 1.22 xG and Crystal Palace 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 0.965 / defence 1.305 | Crystal Palace attack 0.809 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.313. Data: 35 Aston Villa games / 35 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 33% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 41%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Crystal Palace 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crystal Palace at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Aston Villa 50% | Crystal Palace 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 33% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Aston Villa 1.22 / Crystal Palace 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 0.965 / def 1.305 | Crystal Palace attack 0.809 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Crystal Palace xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Aston Villa 1 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace part of?
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 33% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Aston Villa and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Crystal Palace?
Record (1 meetings): Aston Villa 1W | Draws 0 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Aston Villa and Crystal Palace in?
Aston Villa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Aston Villa's attack rating (0.96) and Crystal Palace's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.81x) against Aston Villa's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
33%
3.03
26%
3.81
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
2.61
1.39
Crystal Palace xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.39 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Aston Villa have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 13W 4D 18L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Crystal Palace's form line: 10W 14D 11L from 35 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Aston Villa against 1.26 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Aston Villa have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 4W 6D 7L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aston Villa are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.31 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Current Season
Crystal Palace
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aston Villa and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 13W 4D 18L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 10W 14D 11L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Crystal Palace away?
Aston Villa's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 1.24 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Aston Villa or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crystal Palace won 5-0 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aston Villa have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aston Villa
3
Draws
4
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Crystal Palace?
From 10 meetings on record, Aston Villa have won 3, Crystal Palace have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2026, when Crystal Palace 0-0 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aston Villa 53%, Crystal Palace 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Aston Villa) and 53% (Crystal Palace). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aston Villa play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 47% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Aston Villa's matches and 53% of Crystal Palace's.
Aston Villa and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Villa Park, Regular Season - 37, as Aston Villa and Crystal Palace drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.22 xG and Crystal Palace 1.39 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against Crystal Palace attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 33% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 41%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 60%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.23 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.