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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Burnley 2-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.52 xG and Burnley 1.26 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Burnley landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against Burnley attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 41% | Draw 30% | Burnley 29%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 36%, Burnley 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Burnley's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.33 PPG, Burnley 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights