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Brentford cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Everton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brentford beat Everton 2-4 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.40 xG and Brentford 1.01 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Brentford outscored their 1.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Brentford attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 44% | Draw 30% | Brentford 26%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Brentford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 35%, Brentford 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Brentford's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.33 PPG, Brentford 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights