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Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Everton 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Everton 1-2 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 1.85 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Bournemouth attack 1.26 / defence 1.35, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 36% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 38%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 35%, Bournemouth 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.35 PPG, Bournemouth 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights