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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Everton 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Everton 0-1 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.18 xG and Arsenal 1.38 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Arsenal attack 1.05 / defence 0.78, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 31% | Draw 28% | Arsenal 41%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 37%, Arsenal 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Arsenal's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Arsenal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights