🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Everton and Arsenal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton and Arsenal finished level at 1-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.07 xG and Arsenal 1.36 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Arsenal attack 1.07 / defence 0.72, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 29% | Draw 27% | Arsenal 44%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 41%, Arsenal 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Arsenal's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights