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Stalemate at Crystal Palace's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 33, as Crystal Palace and West Ham drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.34 xG and West Ham 1.16 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 1.3 short of their projected output. West Ham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against West Ham attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 31% | West Ham 30%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 46%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

West Ham's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.38 PPG, West Ham 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights