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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Manchester City run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Crystal Palace.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Crystal Palace 0-3 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.34 xG and Manchester City 1.51 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Manchester City outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Manchester City attack 1.27 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 25% | Manchester City 41%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 45%, Manchester City 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Manchester City's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights