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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chelsea cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Crystal Palace.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Crystal Palace 1-3 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 0.84 xG and Chelsea 1.20 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Chelsea outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.67 / defence 0.92 against Chelsea attack 1.08 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 23% | Draw 36% | Chelsea 41%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 45%, Chelsea 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Chelsea's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.35 PPG, Chelsea 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chelsea win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chelsea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights